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【译文】半岛电视台:资本主义在劫难逃?

【最发达的经济体已濒临双重衰退的边缘】
原链接:http://article.yeeyan.org/view/143354/214132
Tags:资本主义 | 经济危机 | 全球金融


The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anaemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.【译文】半岛电视台:资本主义在劫难逃?上图:随着经济危机在全球各地连续爆发,资本主义的价值在持续受到质疑[图:GALLO/GETTY]
近期,全球金融市场所显示的大规模波动和股票价格的尖锐下挫,正在昭示着:最发达的经济体已濒临双重衰退的边缘。由过多的私人债务和金融杠杆所引起的经济危机造就了大规模兴起的公营机构,以防止“大萧条2.0”。然而,在多数发达金融体系中,随后的复苏不仅显示出了低下的质量和贫血症状,而且引发了痛苦的去杠杆化进程。

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan's earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America's fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns.
现在,高油价,高物价,中东动荡,日本地震和海啸,欧债危机,以及美国(其财务评级现已被下调)财政问题的组合,已经引起了大范围的避险情绪。美国,欧元区,英国和日本的经济都在空转。即使是快速成长中的新兴市场(中国,亚洲新兴经济体和拉丁美洲),和依赖于这些市场的出口导向型经济体(德国和澳大利亚),也在经历着急剧的下滑。

Until last year, policymakers could always produce a new rabbit from their hat to reflate asset prices and trigger economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus, near-zero interest rates, two rounds of "quantitative easing", ring-fencing of bad debt, and trillions of dollars in bailouts and liquidity provision for banks and financial institutions: officials tried them all. Now they have run out of rabbits.
直到去年前,政策制订者们还总是能像变帽子戏法似的变出“兔子”来,使资产价格再膨胀,触发经济复苏:财政刺激,近零利率,两轮“量化宽松”,坏账隔离,以及提供给各金融机构的上万亿救助和流动资金。现在,他们的兔子用光了。

Fiscal policy currently is a drag on economic growth in both the eurozone and the UK. Even in the US, state and local governments, and now the federal government, are cutting expenditure and reducing transfer payments. Soon enough, they will be raising taxes.
目前的财政政策拖累了欧元区和英国的经济增长。即使是在美国,各州和地方政府——现在也包括联邦政府——都在削减开支,减少转移支付。很快,他们还会提高税收。

Another round of bank bailouts is politically unacceptable and economically unfeasible: most governments, especially in Europe, are so distressed that bailouts are unaffordable; indeed, their sovereign risk is actually fuelling concern about the health of Europe's banks, which hold most of the increasingly shaky government paper.
另一轮银行救助计划,在政治上不能被容忍,在经济上也不可行:尤其是对于欧洲大多数国家的政府:它们太过于窘迫,以至于连救助都负担不起;的确,欧洲各国的主权风险实际上助长了人们对欧洲银行健康状况的关注——这些银行是大部分日益摇摇欲坠的政府文件的实体展示。

Nor could monetary policy help very much. Quantitative easing is constrained by above-target inflation in the eurozone and UK. The US Federal Reserve will likely start a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but it will be too little too late. Last year's $600bn QE2 and $1tn in tax cuts and transfers delivered growth of barely three per cent for one quarter. Then growth slumped to below one per cent in the first half of 2011. QE3 will be much smaller, and will do much less to reflate asset prices and restore growth.
货币政策也帮不上什么忙。量化宽松政策受制于欧元区和英国超出预期的通货膨胀。美联储可能会启动第三轮量化宽松(QE3),但它的规模太小,而且太迟。去年QE2所投入的6000亿美元以及在减税/转移支付方面所投入的一万亿美元,在一季度只收获了3%的增长率。紧接着,增长率在2011年上半年下挫至低于1%。 QE3的规模比起QE2会小得多,而且在促进资产再膨胀,恢复经济增长方面将收效更差。

Currency depreciation is not a feasible option for all advanced economies: they all need a weaker currency and better trade balance to restore growth, but they all cannot have it at the same time. So relying on exchange rates to influence trade balances is a zero-sum game. Currency wars are thus on the horizon, with Japan and Switzerland engaging in early battles to weaken their exchange rates. Others will soon follow.
对所有发达经济体而言,促进货币贬值也不是一个可行的选择:它们都需要较弱的货币和更好的贸易平衡,以恢复经济增长,但二者不可兼得:依赖汇率影响贸易平衡,本身就是一个零和游戏。由此可见,货币战争已经迫近,特别是当日本和瑞士已经在早先的较量中削减了它们各自的汇率时。其它国家即将迅速跟进。

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Italy and Spain are now at risk of losing market access, with financial pressures now mounting on France, too. But Italy and Spain are both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out. For now, the European Central Bank will purchase some of their bonds as a bridge to the eurozone's new European Financial Stabilisation Facility. But, if Italy and Spain lose market access, the EFSF's €440 bn ($627bn) war chest could be depleted by the end of this year or early 2012.
与此同时,在欧元区,意大利和西班牙在都面临着失去市场准入资格的风险;当金融压力在法国日渐增长时,法国的市场准入也同样变得危险了起来。但意大利和西班牙都是经济上“大而不倒”的国家,以至于难以被金融保释。就目前而言,欧洲央行将购买这两国的一些债券,以加强欧洲金融稳定机制(EFSF)。但是,如果意大利和西班牙失去市场准入,EFSF的440亿欧元​​(或约等于6270亿美元)专项资金可能会在今年年底或明年年初被耗尽。

Then, unless the EFSF pot were tripled - a move that Germany would resist - the only option left would become an orderly but coercive restructuring of Italian and Spanish debt, as has happened in Greece. Coercive restructuring of insolvent banks' unsecured debt would be next. So, although the process of deleveraging has barely started, debt reductions will become necessary if countries cannot grow or save or inflate themselves out of their debt problems.
进一步来讲,除非EFSF资金增长三倍(这一举动将被德国抵制),唯一的选择将会是:有序地强制重组意大利和西班牙的债务,就像在希腊那样。针对对资不抵债银行的无抵押债务的强制重组将紧随其后。所以,尽管去杠杆化的进程刚刚开始,如果各国难以从其债务问题中脱身,债务减免将成为关键性措施。

So Karl Marx, it seems, was partly right in arguing that globalisation, financial intermediation run amok, and redistribution of income and wealth from labour to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct (though his view that socialism would be better has proven wrong). Firms are cutting jobs because there is not enough final demand. But cutting jobs reduces labour income, increases inequality and reduces final demand.
因此,现在看来,马克思的一些主张其实是正确的:全球化,金融中介横行,劳动力、资本收入和财富的再分配,可能会导致资本主义的自我毁灭(尽管他所认为的“社会主义会更好”已经被证伪)。各公司正在裁员,因为它们没有足够的人力需求。这是一个恶性循环:减少岗位,降低劳动收入,最终将进一步增加不平等,减少人力需求。

Recent popular demonstrations, from the Middle East to Israel to the UK, and rising popular anger in China - and soon enough in other advanced economies and emerging markets - are all driven by the same issues and tensions: growing inequality, poverty, unemployment, and hopelessness. Even the world's middle classes are feeling the squeeze of falling incomes and opportunities.
最近在中东,以色列,英国大行其道的示威游行,以及在中国民众之间日益滋生的愤怒(也将很快在其他发达经济体和新兴市场中蔓延开来),都由同样的问题所驱动:日益加剧的不平等,贫困,失业和绝望。即使是中产阶级也感受到了收入的下降和机遇的减少。

To enable market-oriented economies to operate as they should and can, we need to return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of laissez-faire and voodoo economics and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Both are broken.
为了使面向市场的经济体以理想的状态运作,我们需要重新关注市场和公共产品之间的平衡。这意味着无论是自由放任,华而不实的盎格鲁 - 撒克逊模式,还是由赤字驱动的福利国家的内向型欧洲模式都已被打破。

The right balance today requires creating jobs partly through additional fiscal stimulus aimed at productive infrastructure investment. It also requires more progressive taxation; more short-term fiscal stimulus with medium- and long-term fiscal discipline; lender-of-last-resort support by monetary authorities to prevent ruinous runs on banks; reduction of the debt burden for insolvent households and other distressed economic agents; and stricter supervision and regulation of a financial system run amok; breaking up too-big-to-fail banks and oligopolistic trusts.

今天,适当的平衡需要通过额外的财政刺激措施来达成。这些措施应旨在刺激生产性基础建设投资,以及创造就业机会。这还将需要:更加积极的税收政策,更多短期的财政刺激和更规范的中长期财政纪律,货币当局的紧急贷款支持(以防止银行毁灭性地运行),减少缺乏偿付能力的家庭和其他糟糕经济主体的债务负担,严格监管金融体系的过度运转,以及打碎大而不倒的银行和被寡头垄断的信托基金。

Over time, advanced economies will need to invest in human capital, skills and social safety nets to increase productivity and enable workers to compete, be flexible and thrive in a globalised economy. The alternative is - like in the 1930s - unending stagnation, depression, currency and trade wars, capital controls, financial crisis, sovereign insolvencies, and massive social and political instability.
随着时间的推移,发达经济体们将需要投资于人力资本,技能和社会保障网络,以提高生产率,促进工人们的相互竞争;同时这也使得它们自己变得灵活,在全球化经济中茁壮成长。另一种方法是 ,像在20世纪30年代一样:货币和贸易战争,无休止的停滞,萧条,资本管制,金融危机,主权破产,同时带来巨大的社会和政治不稳定。

Nouriel Roubini is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics.
【努里尔·鲁比尼是纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授,《危机经济学》的作者之一】

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
【此文仅代表作者个人意见,并不反映半岛电视台的取材倾向】